Date of Award
Bachelor of Business (Honours)
School of Management
Business and Law
Dr Ian Patrick Austin
Purpose: The main purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the speculative bubble literature and to provide a practical test upon Lind’s (2008) definition and set of indicators to identify a property bubble.
Methodology: The methodology for this thesis consists of a case study and a comparative analysis. The paper will connect Lind’s theoretical framework to a practical test to provide a concrete answer for the validity of his work.
Findings: Media and general perceptions have had a great influence over the housing market actors for both Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur and Western Australia regions. House prices increases are often attributed to speculative events without real evidences. Narrowing the definition, and the use of a valid set of conditions, revealed that the regions used in the case study do not provide sufficient evidence to categorise these markets as having a property bubble. The complexity of factors (e.g. macroeconomic, credit and labour market) has had a significant impact over house prices, and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has changed the outcomes of the study. In PACA, the GFC has suppressed speculative behaviour and potential new actors are now reluctant to enter the market. In WA, the GFC divided the market into resource industry actors and “others” (buyers with no commercial relation to the resource industry). The paper also confirms Lind’s framework is a suitable and reliable set of tools that helps to identify speculative episodes. It is important to add that any further research on this topic needs to implement a set of specific factors in conjunction with the proposed common base.
Research limitations: The timeframe for this thesis is 2000 to 2011. The central limitation of this research has been the availability of recent data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest dataset from the 2011 census in June 2012. The French equivalent provides data up to late 2009. The absence of authorative comparative data was the main limitation encountered in this study.
Keywords: property bubble, rationality, case study, comparative analysis, house prices, Western Australia, Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur, real estate, housing market.
Aureglia, R. A. (2012). Property bubble : test for suitability and reliability indicators : a comparative assessment of Western Australia and Provence-Alpes-Cote D'Azur. Retrieved from http://ro.ecu.edu.au/theses_hons/78