Predicting the temporal response of seagrass meadows to dredging using Dynamic Bayesian Networks
21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast, Australia
The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.
School of Science / Centre for Marine Ecosystems Research
Predicting temporal responses of ecosystems to disturbances associated with industrial activities is critical for their management and conservation. However, prediction of ecosystem responses is challenging due to the complexity and potential non-linearities stemming from interactions between system components and multiple environmental drivers. Prediction is particularly difficult for marine ecosystems due to their often highly variable and complex natures and large uncertainties surrounding their dynamic responses. Consequently, current management of such systems often rely on expert judgement and/or complex quantitative models that consider only a subset of the relevant ecological processes. Hence there exists an urgent need for the development of whole-of-systems predictive models to support decision and policy makers in managing complex marine systems in the context of industry based disturbances...