The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems

Authors

• Michael Burrows
• David Schoeman
• Lauren Buckley
• Pippa Moore, Edith Cowan University
• Elvira Poloczanska
• Keith Brander
• Chris Brown
• John Bruno
• Carlos Duarte
• Benjamin Halpern
• Johanna Holding
• Carrie Kappel
• Wolfgang Kiessling
• Mary O'Connor
• John Pandolfi
• Camille Parmesan
• Franklin Schwing
• William Sydeman
• Anthony Richardson

Document Type

Journal Article

Keywords

LONG-TERM CHANGES, RANGE SHIFTS, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, SCENARIOS, IMPACTS, PATTERNS, RATES

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Faculty

Faculty of Computing, Health and Science

School

School of Natural Sciences / Centre for Marine Ecosystems Research

RAS ID

12634

Comments

Burrows, M., Schoeman, D., Buckley, L., Moore, P. J., Poloczanska, E., Brander, K., Brown, C., Bruno, J., Duarte, C., Halpern, B., Holding, J., Kappel, C., Kiessling, W., O'Connor, M., Pandolfi, J., Parmesan, C., Schwing, F., Sydeman, W., & Richardson, A. (2011). The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science, 334(6056), 652-655. Available here

Abstract

Climate change challenges organisms to adapt or move to track changes in environments in space and time. We used two measures of thermal shifts from analyses of global temperatures over the past 50 years to describe the pace of climate change that species should track: the velocity of climate change (geographic shifts of isotherms over time) and the shift in seasonal timing of temperatures. Both measures are higher in the ocean than on land at some latitudes, despite slower ocean warming. These indices give a complex mosaic of predicted range shifts and phenology changes that deviate from simple poleward migration and earlier springs or later falls. They also emphasize potential conservation concerns, because areas of high marine biodiversity often have greater velocities of climate change and seasonal shifts.

Access Rights

subscription content