Document Type
Journal Article
Publisher
IAE
School
School of Engineering
RAS ID
20486
Abstract
This study has proposed and empirically tested for the first time genetic algorithm optimization models for modelling Australia’s domestic airline passenger demand, as measured by enplaned passengers (GAPAXDE model) and revenue passenger kilometres performed (GARPKSDE model). Data was divided into training and testing datasets; 74 training datasets were used to estimate the weighting factors of the genetic algorithm models and 13 out-of-sample datasets were used for testing the robustness of the genetic algorithm models. The genetic algorithm parameters used in this study comprised population size (n): 200; the generation number: 1,000; and mutation rate: 0.01. The modelling results have shown that both the quadratic GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE models are more accurate, reliable, and have greater predictive capability as compared to the linear models. The mean absolute percentage error in the out of sample testing dataset for the GAPAXDE and GARPKSDE quadratic models are 2.55 and 2.23%, respectively.
DOI
10.5028/jatm.v7i4/475
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Comments
Srisaeng, P., Baxter, G., Richardson, S., & Wild, G. (2015). A Forecasting Tool for Predicting Australia’s Domestic Airline Passenger Demand Using a Genetic Algorithm. Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management, 7(4), 476-489. Available here