Document Type

Journal Article

Publisher

Taylor & Francis

Faculty

Faculty of Health, Engineering and Science

School

School of Engineering

RAS ID

18310

Comments

This article was originally published as: Brka A., Al-Abdeli Y.M., Kothapalli G. (2016). Influence of neural network training parameters on short-term wind forecasting. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 35(2), 115-131. Original article available here

Abstract

This paper investigates factors which can affect the accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction when done over long periods spanning different seasons. Two types of neural networks (NNs) are used to forecast power generated via specific horizontal axis wind turbines. Meteorological data used are for a specific Western Australian location. Results reveal that seasonal variations affect the prediction accuracy of the wind resource, but the magnitude of this influence strongly depends on the details of the NN deployed. Factors investigated include the span of the time series needed to initially train the networks, the temporal resolution of these data, the length of training pattern within the overall span which is used to implement the predictions and whether the inclusion of solar irradiance data can appreciably affect wind speed prediction accuracy. There appears to be a relatively complex relationship between these factors and the accuracy of wind speed prediction via NNs. Predicting wind speed based on NNs trained using wind speed and solar irradiance data also increases the prediction accuracy of wind power generated, as can the type of network selected.

DOI

10.1080/14786451.2013.873437

Access Rights

free_to_read

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