School of Science
Climate change may facilitate alien species invasion into new areas. This study uses Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory to develop a species distribution model (SDM) of Acacia nilotica (L.) Willd. ex Delile. based upon its naturalized distribution to project the potential distribution of A. nilotica throughout tropical environment of Indonesia under current and future climate conditions. Global biodiversity information facility database was utilized to obtain the species occurrences data. The climate factors were precipitation and temperature layers, available in Worldclim current conditions (1950-2000) at 2.5 arcmin. We used Generalized Linear Model. The result was then projected to the year 2045 using RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to influence the climate model (CSIRO Mark 3.0. with 30’’ resolution). Final results show that global climate change is likely to increase markedly the potential distribution of A. nilotica in Indonesia. By the year 2045, A. nilotica is most likely to spread to eastern parts of Indonesia. In general, our model performance is good (AUC = 0.82), however, like many other SDMs, it does not take into account biotic interactions as well as other environmental factors. Nonetheless, climatic suitability is an essential requirement for successful establishment of an invasive species and species distribution models that can disclose general patterns and convey useful estimate.
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