Does momentum trading opportunities exit? Evidence from Chinese and Indian stock markets
Annual Conference of the Multinational Finance Society
Multinational Finance Society
School of Business / Markets and Services Research Centre
This paper examines whether investors can use technical analysis (such as momentum trading) to generate abnormal returns. Testing momentum strategy in Chinese and Indian stock market with transaction cost provides a unique opportunity to determine whether the stock transaction tax have any significant impact on abnormal returns in these two markets. The main research method used is the standard momentum trading strategy, while contrarian strategy is also considered as an innovation. Prior evidence relating to pre-2005 period suggests that the abnormal returns will remain for the Chinese market. However, the cumulative abnormal return for post-2006 period is expected to decline, thus reaching -0.8% in 2012. These findings have implications for the two hotly contested issues, that is: (1) market efficiency (weak-form EMH), and (2) the profitability power of real world momentum trading strategy. After controlling for the impact of different market frictions, bootstrapping of data, and Chow breakpoint tests, we report findings that are more robust.