Burden of 10 mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study
Author Identifier (ORCID)
Abstract
Background: Mental disorders impose a disproportionate burden on populations in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) and low-income countries (LICs), yet longitudinal assessments across these settings remain limited.
Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we investigated prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 10 mental disorder subcategories across 76 LMICs and LICs from 1990 to 2023 and projected trends through 2050 via a generalized ensemble modeling approach.
Findings: Age-standardized prevalence rose markedly between 1990 and 2023, from 10,759.9 (95% uncertainty interval, 9,560.1–12,088.6) to 13,929.3 (12,512.5–15,829.0) per 100,000 in LMICs and from 11,723.6 (10,577.7–12,987.5) to 14,979.1 (13,512.9–16,770.7) in LICs, accompanied by corresponding increases in age-standardized DALY rates. The most pronounced increases in both age-standardized prevalence and DALYs were observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Anxiety disorders (total percentage change: 102.3% in LMICs; 67.3% in LICs), eating disorders (40.7% in LMICs; 4.8% in LICs), depressive disorders (28.6% in LMICs; 29.8% in LICs), and autism spectrum disorders (14.9% in LMICs; 22.5% in LICs) showed the largest increases in prevalence. Under a reference scenario where past trends persist, age-standardized prevalence is projected to reach 17,155.8 (14,449.5–20,212.5) per 100,000 in LMICs and 17,968.4 (15,109.8–21,090.9) in LICs by 2050.
Conclusions: These findings reveal persistent and widening disparities in mental health burden across resource-limited settings, substantially exacerbated by the pandemic. Without targeted, scalable, and sustained policy interventions, the burden in LMICs and LICs will continue to worsen, underscoring the critical need for context-specific public health action.
Keywords
GBD 2023, global burden of disease, low and middle-income countries, low-income countries, mental disorders, Translation to population health
Document Type
Journal Article
Date of Publication
8-14-2026
Article Number
101224
E-ISSN
26666340
ISSN
26666359
Volume
7
Issue
8
PubMed ID
42526430
Publication Title
Med
Publisher
Elsevier
School
School of Medical and Health Sciences
Funding Information
This study was funded by the Gates Foundation.
Copyright
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Recommended Citation
GBD 2023 LMIC Mental Disorders Collaborators. (2026). Burden of 10 mental disorders in low- and middle-income countries, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study. Med, 7(8), Article 101224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.medj.2026.101224