Predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA from tests and state populations?
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Title
Advances in Decision Sciences
Volume
25
Issue
2
First Page
1
Last Page
27
Publisher
Asia University, Taiwan
School
School of Business and Law
RAS ID
37000
Funders
Australian Research Council / Ministry of Science and Technology / Taiwan Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Abstract
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan,The paper presents a novel analysis of the US spread of the SARS-CoV-2 causes the COVID-19 disease across 50 States and 2 Territories. Simple cross-sectional regressions are able to predict quite accurately both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on measures aimed at controlling the disease via lockdowns. Population density appears to play a significant role in transmission. This throws in sharp relief the relative e_ectiveness of the at-tempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by flattening the curve' (aka planking the curve) of the speed of transmission, and the effcacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. The algorithmic tech-niques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers, and risk management and deficision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries.
DOI
10.47654/V25Y2021I2P1-27
Access Rights
free_to_read
Comments
Allen, D. E., & McAleer, M. (2021). Predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA from tests and state populations. Advances in Decision Sciences, 25(2), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.47654/V25Y2021I2P1-27