Take it to the limit: Innovative CVaR applications to extreme credit risk measurement
Abstract
The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) demonstrated the devastating impact of extreme credit risk on global economic stability. We develop four credit models to better measure credit risk in extreme economic circumstances, by applying innovative Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) techniques to structural models (called Xtreme-S), transition models (Xtreme-T), quantile regression models (Xtreme-Q), and the author's unique iTransition model (Xtreme-. i) which incorporates industry factors into transition matrices. We find the Xtreme-S and Xtreme-Q models to be the most responsive to changing market conditions. The paper also demonstrates how the models can be used to determine capital buffers required to deal with extreme credit risk.
Document Type
Journal Article
Location of the Work
Netherlands
Faculty
Faculty of Business and Law
School
School of Business / Markets and Services Research Centre
RAS ID
18439
Copyright
subscription content
Publisher
Elsevier
Comments
Allen, D., Powell, R. , & Singh, A. (2016). Take it to the limit: Innovative CVaR applications to extreme credit risk measurement. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(2), 465-475. Available here