Commodity futures returns and policy uncertainty

Authors

Deepa Bannigidadmath, Edith Cowan UniversityFollow
Paresh Kumar Narayan

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Title

International Review of Economics and Finance

Volume

72

First Page

364

Last Page

383

Publisher

Elsevier

School

School of Business and Law

RAS ID

32515

Comments

This is an author's accepted manuscript of: Bannigidadmath, D., & Narayan, P. K. (2021). Commodity futures returns and policy uncertainty. International Review of Economics & Finance, 72, 364-383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.11.009

Abstract

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.

DOI

10.1016/j.iref.2020.11.009

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.